Rains to continue pounding Kenya, Sudan and Uganda Between June and September as Tanzania goes dry
Weather
The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre have released the official seasonal climate outlook for the months of June, July, August and September 2025 rainfall season over the Greater Horn of Africa.
The forecast indicates a high likelihood of above-normal rainfall across much of the northern parts of the region.
The forecast was issued during the 70th Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF 70).
The period of June, July, August and September is a critical rainy season for countries in the northern and western parts of the Greater Horn of Africa.
The period contributes to over 50 percent of annual rainfall over the northern parts of the horn of Africa region, and more than 80 percent in most parts of Sudan, making the seasonal forecast particularly significant for early action and planning in sectors such as Agriculture and food security, water resources, disaster risk reduction, and in other climate-sensitive socio-economic sectors.
There is a 55 percent probability of above-normal rainfall over central Sudan, eastern South Sudan, northern and southwestern Ethiopia, western Kenya, and eastern Uganda.
Additionally, western Uganda, South Sudan, southern Sudan, Djibouti, and western Eritrea are expected to experience wetter-than-average conditions of approximately 45 percent probability.
Conversely, there is a high chance of below-average rainfall over the coastal areas of Somalia and Kenya, north-western South Sudan, and south-eastern Ethiopia.
The onset of rains is likely to be normal over most parts of the region, with a few regions that are expected to have an early onset. However, in parts of western Ethiopia, a delayed onset is more probable.
Southern parts of the Greater Horn of Africa, including Tanzania, Rwanda and Burundi are expected to remain mostly dry, as June, July, August and September are not typically not their main rainy season.
The temperature forecast shows a likelihood of warmer-than-average conditions over much of the region, with higher probabilities over southern Ethiopia and Somalia, eastern Kenya, and northern Sudan.
Equally, average to below-average temperatures are expected over the IGAD-Karamoja cluster, Djibouti, Eritrea, central Sudan, and north-eastern Ethiopia.
While wetter conditions bring opportunities for agriculture and water access, they also raise the risk of flooding and waterborne diseases.
IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) urge regional and national authorities to take proactive measures to prepare and respond effectively.
Mohamed Ware, Deputy Executive Secretary of IGAD, emphasised the urgency of collective action, saying the Greater Horn of Africa is experiencing unprecedented climate extremes, ranging from droughts and floods to unpredictable rainfall.
“That places our food systems, water resources, and livelihoods at serious risk. We must institutionalise climate services and work together across borders and sectors to ensure climate risks are integrated into every decision. The future of our region depends on it.”
Habtamu Itefa, the Minister of Water and Energy of Ethiopia, highlighted the need for continued investment: “We must continue to invest in and expand systems capable of generating knowledge-based, user-tailored climate information. This is essential for guiding policy decisions and reaching grassroots communities most vulnerable to climate risks.”
Abdi Fidar, the Officer in Charge at ICPAC, highlighted the significance of GHACOF as a regional platform: “GHACOF continues to be a leading platform in our region where climate experts, decision-makers, and stakeholders co-produce and share actionable climate information that shapes preparedness and response at national and regional levels.”