October to December 2024 weather: Eastern Africa split between excessive rains and severe drought

The Seasonal Weather Forecast for the months of October, November and December 2024 indicates a critical rainfall period for the equatorial regions of the Greater Horn of Africa.

The Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) report indicates an increased likelihood of drier-than-normal conditions over the eastern parts of the Horn of Africa.

Southern Ethiopia, much of Somalia, eastern Kenya, and parts of central and southern Tanzania are expected to experience below-normal rainfall, with the highest probabilities in southern Ethiopia and central and northern Somalia.

In contrast, western parts of the region, including south-eastern South Sudan, northern Uganda, western and north-western Kenya, northern Tanzania, southern Burundi, and parts of western Rwanda are likely to experience above-normal rainfall, potentially supporting agricultural productivity, pasture generation, and water resources availability.

The Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) issued the seasonal forecast for October to December 2024, describing the situation to be a critical rainfall period for the equatorial regions of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA).

An early to normal onset is expected in much of the western parts of the region, including south-western Ethiopia, Uganda, western Kenya, Burundi, Rwanda, and western Tanzania. On the other hand, late onset is anticipated in parts of southern Somalia, eastern Kenya, eastern Tanzania, and southern Ethiopia.

The temperature forecast indicates an increased likelihood of warmer-than-average surface temperatures across the GHA, with eastern parts of Tanzania, Kenya, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Sudan, Djibouti, and Somalia expected to experience the highest probabilities of warmer-than-average conditions.

In contrast, average to cooler-than-average temperatures are anticipated in cross-border areas of Uganda, South Sudan, Ethiopia, and Kenya, as well as localized areas in northern Tanzania and western Sudan.

 The October to December 2024 forecast—which predicts drought in the eastern parts of the region and wetter conditions in the west—highlights the collective need for urgent and coordinated action to address food insecurity and climate challenges in the region.

 Dr. Workneh Gebeyehu, the IGAD Executive Secretary notes that the pressing challenges facing the region are exacerbated by extreme climate events and socioeconomic factors.

 “Food insecurity continues to persist in the IGAD region, with 56.5 million people currently facing acute shortages. Disease outbreaks, worsened by severe climate events and conflicts, are adding to the strain.”

The climate outlook for the October to December 2024 season shared today underscores the urgent need for coordinated preparedness efforts by national governments, development agencies, and humanitarian partners. Together, we must prioritize early action for building resilient systems capable of addressing these evolving challenges”

 Engineer Festus Ng’eno, Principal Secretary – State Department for Environment highlighted the significance of early warning systems stating that the effectiveness of these systems depends on collective action.

“We need to invest in the development and maintenance of these systems. We need to ensure that warnings reach everyone, including the most vulnerable communities. And we need to educate people about the risks of climate change and how to respond to early warnings.”

Dr Abdi Fidar, the Officer-in-Charge at ICPAC emphasized the importance of early warning information, such as seasonal forecasts for regional planning and informed decision-making.

“This outlook is crucial for planning across the region. The predicted drier conditions in the eastern Horn of Africa, coupled with ongoing food insecurity, demand coordinated timely action from relevant stakeholders to mitigate potential impacts.”

In line with the World Meteorological Organization’s guidelines and recommendations, ICPAC has adopted an objective seasonal forecast method to generate climate forecasts for the Greater Horn of Africa.

August 2024 initialized seasonal forecasts from Nine Global Producing Centers were utilized and processed to develop the October-November-December 2024 seasonal climate outlook.