The Times of Tanzania
Eastern Africa News Network, Breaking News Tanzania

Kenya and Tanzania may soon get warmer as rains continue to pound Uganda, Ethiopia, Djibouti

Tanzania is among the seven Eastern African countries set to experience warmer than normal weather conditions between the months of June and September 2024.

Other areas likely to be warm and humid in the space of three months include Northern Sudan, Central and Western Ethiopia, Somalia, parts of Kenya, Rwanda and Burundi.

In fact, parts of northern Somalia, isolated areas over western Ethiopia, and north-western South Sudan are expected to experience drier-than-normal conditions.

But according to the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC)’s June to September 2024 seasonal forecast, rains will continue to pound in Uganda as well as most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa where an increased likelihood of above-normal precipitation should be experienced.

 “The Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) stands as a region that is highly susceptible to the adverse impacts of climate change, which pose significant challenges to the resilience of our communities,” points out Dr Guleid Artan, ICPAC’s Director.

Normally however, the months of June and July are usually very cold in mostly Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania, which means the forecasted warmer conditions may start to be experienced from August onwards.

On the other hand, areas expected to get above-normal rainy conditions include Djibouti, Eritrea, Central and Northern Ethiopia, Western and Coastal Kenya, much of Uganda, North-Sudan and South Sudan.

The climate patterns in the June, July, August and September 2024 period closely resemble those of 1998 and 2010, both of which experienced wetter-than-normal conditions over much of the region.

An early to normal onset is expected in several parts of the region including central and northern Ethiopia, Eritrea, Sudan, and South Sudan.

However, a delayed onset is likely in Djibouti, parts of eastern and western Ethiopia, central and western Sudan, and southern South Sudan.

The report indicates that forecasted wetter-than-normal conditions for June to September 2024 echo the patterns of 1998 and 2010, highlighting the level of impact especially for South Sudan and Sudan, which may experience impacts of floods.

 “As we observe these recurring extreme climate events, it is important to acknowledge the pivotal role played by early warning systems which serve as key instruments of preparedness, guiding us through climate variability,” said Dr Artan.

In line with the World Meteorological Organization’s guidelines and recommendations, the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre has adopted an objective seasonal forecast method to generate climate forecasts for the Greater Horn of Africa.

Apparently, the May 2024 initialized seasonal forecasts from nine Global Producing Centres (GPCs) were utilised and processed to develop the June  to September 2024 seasonal climate outlook.

The seasonal forecasts and their hind-cast data were analysed to deliver a probabilistic forecast indicating the likelihood of above-normal, normal, or below-normal rainfall.

IGAD is the Djibouti-based Intergovernmental Authority on Development, an eight-country trade bloc in Africa. It includes governments from the Horn of Africa, Nile Valley and the African Great Lakes.

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