Eastern African Region’s Weather forecast for the months of October, November and December indicates normal rains as well as below average precipitation in most countries.
The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), in collaboration with the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs), World Meteorology Organization (WMO), and development partners, have officially released the latest seasonal climate outlook.
The forecast is for the months of October, November and December 2025.
The weather prediction for the last three months of the year was tabled during the 71st Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF 71).
The forum brought together experts and decision-makers to assess the impact of the June to September season and to present the consolidated regional outlook for the upcoming OND 2025 rainfall season.
October, November and December is an important rainfall season for the equatorial Greater Horn of Africa, contributing up to 70 percent of the annual total in parts of Kenya and Somalia.
It is also the short-rains (Vuli) season in most parts of Tanzania.
The forecast points to a higher likelihood of below-normal rainfall across most parts of the region except parts of south-eastern South Sudan, north-eastern and south-western parts of Uganda, where wetter than usual conditions are forecasted.
Rainfall Forecast
Below-normal rainfall is expected over most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa, with the strongest signal over eastern parts of the region, including southern Ethiopia, much of Somalia, eastern Kenya, and parts of central and southern Tanzania.
On the other hand, above-normal rainfall is expected in western parts of the region, particularly in south-eastern South Sudan, north-eastern and south-western Uganda, northern Somalia, and parts of northern Rwanda.
There is a high likelihood of over 70 percent precipitation, exceeding 300 millimetres of rainfall in parts of western Kenya, southern Uganda, much of Rwanda and Burundi, and north-western Tanzania.
Regions such as south-western Ethiopia, north-western Kenya, central to northern Uganda, most of Rwanda and western Burundi present equal chances for rainfall.
A delayed onset is predicted over the eastern parts of the region, particularly in southern Somalia, eastern and central Kenya, as well as parts of southern and eastern Tanzania.
In contrast, early to normal onset is expected over much of the western parts of the region, including south-western Ethiopia, much of the Southern parts of South Sudan, Uganda and Western Kenya.
Same case applies to most parts of Burundi, Rwanda, Western and Central Tanzania.
Temperature Outlook
Generally, the forecast indicates an increased likelihood of warmer-than-average surface temperatures across the Greater Horn of Africa, with the highest likelihood over the eastern part of the region.
Average and cooler-than-average conditions are expected over cross-border areas of Uganda, South Sudan, and Kenya, as well as north-western Sudan.
Mohamed Ware, the Deputy Executive Secretary of IGAD, emphasised the need for collaboration, stating, “The Greater Horn of Africa is at the frontline of the climate crisis. Climate information must reach the last mile, and only through collaboration and early action can we turn forecasts into meaningful messages that drive timely action.”
Dr. Deborah Barasa, Kenyan Cabinet Secretary, Ministry of Environment, Climate Change and Forestry, Kenya, noted, “Bridging the early warning gap requires shared knowledge, timely information, and a united regional approach. Kenya remains committed to supporting regional frameworks that strengthen climate resilience across our communities.”
Edward Muriuki, the Acting Director, Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) stated, “Early warning systems save lives only when they reach everyone, including the most vulnerable.
At Kenya Meteorological Department, we remain committed to providing accurate and timely climate services that support communities to plan, adapt, and build resilience.”
GHACOF 71 was convened as a hybrid event on the 25th and 26th of August 2025.
The Forum was attended by representatives from the 11 Member States of the Greater Horn of Africa region (Burundi, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Tanzania, and Uganda), alongside representatives from key sectors (agriculture and food security, livestock, water resources, health, disaster risk management, conflict and media), NGOs, humanitarian agencies, media, and development partners.